Off Topic Will there be a market for these old British Cars in 15-20 years?

Just a thought,


I was discussing the classic car market with my father in law(60+ year old Corvette guy). I hear only 30% of 16 year-olds are getting their drivers license. Where's the love for driving? Too expensive? Not ipod/pad compatible.

The Tr4 I own fell into my lap. Neighbor had it in his garage yata, yata. My Aunt had a 1980 orange Spitfire when I was young 4 or 5 years old (36 Now) which was the only thing that turned me on to old British cars. My Dad was not into old cars nor any relatives.

Will the kids of today still love cars the way we do in the future, or will these cars die with us?

If I take my TR4 to show and a kid (any age 4-16) comes up to the Car, I make sure to tell him to sit and act like he's driving. Turn the wheel play with the shifter. He/she won't break it, and if he does I probably have a spare in the trunk.

What are we doing to keep the love alive??

You're doing the right thing already! Get young folks physically involved in experiencing the cars. I do the same. Many are fascinated by the idea of actually seeing how a car works: fuel pump, carburetor, distributor, spark plug, coil, etc.

Sadly however, I think back at things my own parents loved 50 years ago: stamp collecting, coin collecting. Try finding people today that are into that, who aren't already in retirement.

So you do your best, but there are no guarantees. My pet peeve: many young people today are involved with digital devices. They move their fingers and brains, but that's about all. No real "physical" involvement with the experience.

Tom

Well, you're 36 so this is possibly a concern. Me, not too much bothered by what the car market may look like in 2035.

But you can't go far wrong just enjoying it all you can today, and as you note, sharing the experience with kids is a lot of fun:

https://s1214.photobucket.com/user/Ahwahnee18/slideshow/TR Kids?sort=3

Great photos!

I don't think things are as bad as they sometimes feel.

My own generation doesn't/didn't have all that many people who were into cars. It just feels like there are/were more because I tend to hang around with "those people."

When you stand back and look at the masses of "normal" people you can see that it doesn't take a huge percentage of the population to keep the hobby alive. It never really did.

Back in "my day" the vast majority of people were doing non-car stuff too, working, watching TV, painting, potting, playing music, dancing, collecting, fishing, playing sports, watching sports, smoking dope, whatever. If the people that are burying themselves in their digital devices are eroding market share from all the other stuff the car hobby can still flourish.

As for the "kids today," I've met a bunch of new, young friends through car-centric internet groups who are every bit as enthusiastic about cars as us oldsters. And thanks to the interwebs they have access to far more car info than we ever did. When you meet a nineteen year old that says what he really wants is a bugeye, it helps you sleep better at night.

I think the best strategy is for all of us to do what you're doing, Zitch. Keep introducing as many young folks as possible to the cars in a fun way. They'll "get it."


pc

There are a couple of ways to look at this as far as numbers are concerned. First the number of these cars are never going to greatly increase despite the cars that we find as barn finds and resurrect to drivable condition. Second the number of people in the population is increasing so if you have 1% of the people interested in these cars then there will likely never be enough cars to fulfill the desire for them.
Aside from that -- What are we doing to keep this alive?---I have one son ( age 48 ) that is very interested in the cars. And he has a daughter now almost 18 that appears to be interested in them as well. So I gave them a fully restored TR3B, after I drove it for about twenty years, with the condition that if they didn't want it just send it back to me. He will drive it as long as he wants it and then it is to go to the granddaughter. I will likely be long gone by the time she actually gets the car from him. I then have a daughter that likes the cars and will gladly accept one given to her. She has two sons that I was going to give a restored TR4 to each of them but they out grew the cars at 6'6". So she will get a TR4 when I am ready to give up one of the two that I have.
Meanwhile I am restoring a basket case TR3A and I have no idea where it will head when I am finished playing with it. But the likelihood of getting them back on the road now is a lot better than it happening later. Not that that is the reason why I am doing the restoration. The reason is purely selfish. I love doing it and thoroughly enjoy seeing it come together. It will be my fourth Triumph restoration when and if it gets done. Yes, I have another child, a son, that does not care a whit about the cars. So he does not get one!
Charley

Nice Geo.

3798j said:

Nice Geo.

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I wonder more if there will be gas for these old cars,or my old bikes, in the future or will they be forced off the road with new fuel formulas or emission regulations.
tom

Geo Hahn said:

Well, you're 36 so this is possibly a concern. Me, not too much bothered by what the car market may look like in 2035.

But you can't go far wrong just enjoying it all you can today, and as you note, sharing the experience with kids is a lot of fun:

https://s1214.photobucket.com/user/Ahwahnee18/slideshow/TR Kids?sort=3

Click to expand...

Those pictures are wonderful and I totally agree with your thoughts. My cars weren't bought as investments or museum pieces, they were bought for MY enjoyment. I'm not a "caretaker", I'm a driver. If I don't die with them, I'll probably at least have them as long as I can still push down on the clutch pedal. If my sons want the Healeys when I'm gone, great. But only because of the memories of the times we spent together in them. Otherwise, they should get to enjoy the stuff that makes them remember when they were young. These discussions always remind me of visiting with a guy as a teenager in the '60s that had a beautifully restored Stevens-Duryea. It was obviously his pride and joy and i listened politely as he waxed euphoric about it. Inside, i was thinking it was no GTO or SS396. My point is enjoy your car in the here and now and for the future, whatever will be will be.

I've got less in my TR than each of several drivers that were worth next to nothing when I was done. The TR increasingly becomes my main driver will still be a driver someone can go to the beach in when I'm done. I'll be scrap and have other things on my mind.

Things that affect our cars for the future:
1. More and more electric cars
2. Less gas being used, less carbon footprint will eventually put pressure on our cars
3. Less interest from younger people
4. Parts availability??

So what are they worth in 15 years??? who knows but I restored mine with the idea that I would be driving them for 15 more years. they I will have to get rid of them.
Jerry

Electric cars won't drive "our" cars off the road. Oh it may be harder to find gas if they really catch on, but if the really catch on the emissions of a few old cars here and there probably won't make much difference. However, the self driving car could effectively kill the old car hobby for the common man. More and more companies, car companies, not just google, are working on them. They will start selling them to the general public in say five years. In fifteen they will start talking about how all the people driven cars screw up the safety and efficiency of the self driving car "system" and they will look at ways to get them off the roads. Twenty years, you will have to have your own land or move to a backwards, third world country to be able to drive your own car, new or old.

That may seem a little far fetched, so lets get back to "near fetched" Old Hobby cars (as opposed to high end like Duesenbergs and Bugattis and old Ferraris) have shelf life and peak of value that usually coincides with the aging of those that might have wanted them when they were new or at least daily driver type cars. Common pre-war cars like model Ts and Model As have been stagnant in value and interest for years. This also relates somewhat I think to how well they can be driven and enjoyed in modern traffic, I think that is why T series MGs have been pretty stagnant in value too.

So now 60s cars are peaking, 70s cars are rising in value (BMW 2002, Porsche 911s) 80s and 90s future collectors are still bargains for the most part. This phenomenon has been going on for years, and I predict it will continue, however, when you combine the aging out or life cycle of the collector car, and add the seeming lack or waning interest in cars by a significant part of the later generations, and I think E-types and Big Healeys, and such won't just stagnate in the future, the value could drop considerably. I am not saying you will lose your shirt on your XKE if you hold onto it for five years, they still may even go up for a few years, but I don't think banking on such cars as the heritage you will pass down to your kids (monetarily speaking) or fund your retirement in 20 years is such a great idea.

That being said, the rich also seem to be getting richer, if this keeps happening, the collector car market may keep apace or grow for longer than my above speculation would predict.

My hope personally is that, as a tail end of the baby boom guy, time will be on my side, and instead of my income chasing and always lagging a little behind e-type and such ownership, in the next ten years it may start catching up, my first goal is to own and enjoy them, so if the collective you or at least more of the collective you, don't want them it is going to be good for me, cause I still will!

As far as 16 year olds not driving, Its true that many are not excited about driving. My youngest is 18. He drives, But is clearly not excited as his older brother and sister was. Many of his friends are the same. My guess is that it has to do with the time these kids spend on the computer, It is their world to them. From an early age they have been taught about all the bad thing that happen in cars(drunk driving deaths ect.. ect..) and the freedom that we enjoyed while driving (when we were 16) just does not interest them. As far as electric cars and gas going away, I was told by a very respected person, that in 20 years gas will not exsist. That was in 1975. I am not worried about electric or self driving....maybe my kids should.

Look at some of the crazy prices being paid at the auctions. Some of these bloated plutocrats are going to be stuck big time when the day comes. Think Tulipmania in Holland, Sad thing is these greedy speculators have driven the true enthusiasts out of the sport because they can't afford to play (See the art market). I say drive your TR or MG or whatever as long as you can, don't worry about the gas supply - I believe these cars can run on propane or other substitute - and if the day comes when and if they're legislated off the road, you've had your fun.

TFB said:

I wonder more if there will be gas for these old cars,or my old bikes, in the future or will they be forced off the road with new fuel formulas or emission regulations.
tom

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Might be some more adaptation required (like we've been doing with ethanol-resistant components), but I don't see much chance that there won't be some way to drive them. They'll even run well enough on E85, which is more than can be said for a whole lot of newer cars.

I suppose a hundred years ago some thought the days of riding horses was coming to an end... yet many of my neighbors still have them. Equestrians have a specialized (and expensive) hobby that requires specific facilities and supplies - but nevertheless they pursue it with passion and find ways to co-exist with the motor age.

Even as energy sources and public roads (slowly) change there will be some who cling to the old and they will find a way to continue to enjoy it.

From newer cars, as they become the collectibles parts and repair equipment could be that factors. Specialized computer chips, fiber optics with send/receive bits, computerized diagnotic and update maichines, specialized paint and delivery/containment systems, all these things could be cost or availability issues when restoring a 21st century car someday, unlike our fairly simple needs. While there will probably always be some market for old cars I do wonder if the days of the home restorer are numbered due just to the cost of those supplies needed and the setup knowledge required.

For a long time my opinion has been: the cars that today's 50-70 year-olds idolized as youths are the more valuable cars today. Reason being, at that age the kids are out of the house, the mortgage is paid, and some have extra $ to spend on their childhood dreams.

Air cooled Porsches from the 70's; folks born in the 50's and 60's are buying them today.

Muscle cars became popular maybe 10 years ago; cars from the late 60's being bought by those born in the late 40's.

Pre-war cars (Model A Fords, etc.) are stagnating in value, as fewer people grew up with them as "dream cars". This is great for me; as much as I love my TR4A, I would LOOOOOOOOOOVE to have a massive Cadillac or Packard from c. 1940 :chuncky:.

Not sure what is next on the car-collector horizon; the 80's were not particularly exciting times for car makers!

There are quite a few 80s cars that will be desirable. I also happened to have an unhealthy interest in 60s/70s Triumphs then as well, but...

Hot hatches came into their own & were highly desirable in the 80s. Correspondingly the values of Peugeot 205 GTis & VW Golf GTi Mk1s are climbing. Higher value options: Lancia Delta Integrales (the 1st real rally "evo" car) and the Magnum PI Ferrari 308s are probably as cheap now as they ever will be. We might even see some more unusual Japanese sport cars... Toyota MR2 etc.

Agreed that 90s probably have richer pickings though