Been a long time since I had to mess with those. Dash and top of doors is wood screw threads, I think, the one you are questioning should be nut-on-back.
I would not try to spin the stud down hoping to catch the nut, as I do believe you'll fratz the paint.
Pull the inner panel loose enough to get into it with an ignition wrench. Braille capabilities might be in order. Pulling the entire panel will give you more access, more visibility. Hold the stud while doing it...again, long time ago for me...I think I pushed a piece of vacuum hose over the stud rather than a wrench.
Somebody else will have done it more recently.