LBC market dynamics: where 's it going??

[vagt6]

Prices on some LBCs (all marques) have been escalating steadily for years now. Where's the ceiling?

It's all so subjective. Is a Tr-2/3 "worth" more than a nice E-type??? Nice TR-2/3s are going in the $40K range nowadays; TR-8s for $20K+; MGBs for $20K, etc. Never though I'd see this kind of pricing, really.

I watch LBC sales prices closely, like many of us here. For example, retail values rose approx. 3% in just the last quarter in the "Cars That Matter" guidebook (a pretty reliable indice). Three percent in three months! Could have something to do with the "recession", maybe not. At any rate, it's significant and it's been going on for several years now.

Further, the rate of increase for some LBC sales prices equals/exceeds that of a professionally-managed investment portfolio! I can't recall such a steady increase in pricing for LBCs.

Where's this market going, guys??? What's it going to be like 5-10 years from today???

That E-type Jag is getting farther and farther away from my garage . . .

 

[Mickey Richaud]

Where's this market going, guys??? What's it going to be like 5-10 years from today???

That E-type Jag is getting farther and farther away from my garage . . .

My thoughts exactly, Mark.

And brings to mind an old saw:

"No time like the present..."

On the one hand, we groan about how undervalued some of our cars are. Then when the prices start climbing, we gripe because we can't afford 'em!

There's no waiting out the market. Fact is, these cars are becoming scarcer and there are more people looking for them. Ironically, the success of things like BCF will only "complicate" things!

Mickey

 

[JamesWilson]

On the one hand, we groan about how undervalued some of our cars are. Then when the prices start climbing, we gripe because we can't afford 'em!
Mickey

Just wait til all us old codgers die and the heirs flood the market with LBCs hoping to get rich...


and maybe they will, if they get back 1/2 of what went into them.... :crazy:

 

[70herald]

Could have something to do with the "recession", maybe not. At any rate, it's significant and it's been going on for several years now.

Quite likely, the dollar is <span style="text-decoration: underline">really</span> weak (it is down 12%!!! vs. the Israeli shekel since JANUARY and similar for other currencies), and it makes it much cheaper for anyone outside of the US to buy up cars. At the same time, the internet has made this an easy transaction. Of course the recession has only been for the last few months, but the dollar has been going down for quite a while.

 

[Basil]

Could have something to do with the "recession", maybe not. At any rate, it's significant and it's been going on for several years now.

Quite likely, the dollar is <span style="text-decoration: underline">really</span> weak (it is down 12%!!! vs. the Israeli shekel since JANUARY and similar for other currencies), and it makes it much cheaper for anyone outside of the US to buy up cars. At the same time, the internet has made this an easy transaction. Of course the recession has only been for the last few months, but the dollar has been going down for quite a while.

All true except we are not in a recession. A recession, by definition, is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. So far, we have not had one quarter of negative growth...just two quarters (so far) of relatively slow positive growth (0.6% to be exact). If it were to continue two slow and go negative for two quarters, then we would be in a recession. My personal opinion (I may be wrong) is that we are going to avoid a full-fledged recession and see growth turn around in the late spring and summer/fall. Overall in the past several years, economic growth has been pretty darned good and I see this as a temporary slowdown fueled mostly by the current credit situation.

 

[Guest]

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.


A depression is when you lose your job.

 

[jessebogan]

Well, I think ( and I may be wrong also ) that our beloved government is "fudging" the numbers more than a bit. It is an election year and all that. Every billion that the "FED" injects to prop it all up just devalues the existing dollars that much more.

Anyway, because we are in a "global market" now, and the dollar is plunging, that makes it ever more likely that LBCs will end up being exported.I am a little concerned about this. These cars are OUR heritage too. They have been part of the American automotive scene since WW2, and provided the ...uh... more intellectual consumer with an alternative product to the "Yank Tanks", muscle cars etc. Now that the GBP is worth $2.00 USD, it makes OUR cars half price to the English. Naturally, I don't begrudge them wanting LBCs , but after all, they sent them here by the boatload in the first place. I know that there is nothing I can do to stop it, but it would be a shame if a future generation American kid, who sees us in one of our cars, can't get one without a major bank involvement.

This is only a little tounge in cheek here. Clearly there are not as many cars around as there are buyers for them. This is going to drive the prices up anyway, and the decline in the dollar makes them more marketable in the rest of the world. The good news is that cars that were once thought to be beyond economic repair will probably end up getting restored. I just wish I could "put a few away" now, so that I could have them in the future. Sigh...

 

[tony barnhill]

Just my experienced opinion:

First, the price guide books are written by people who want to make money...thus, they go with the highest price possible....all my adult life I've noticed that prices in NADA books are higher than actual sale prices wherever I happen to be....and somebody always knows about a car out in California just like the one they've got that sold for whatever high dollar & they can prove it by a magazine article somebody wrote....the uninitiated will usually fall for either example because its in writing (sucker born every minute syndrome) & we all know that whatever's in writing is the absolute truth!

Second, auctions are held by people who want to make money...thus, they glamorize the highest prices paid at auction for cars that are almost perfect hoping to be able to attribut some of that high price onto other cars they hope to sell at auction to make more money. And most people get involved in the emotion of an auction and emotionally pay more than what something's worth & later are ashamed of what they paid so they keep up the deceit...just look at all the people who pay more than Moss catalog prices on ebay for new Moss items & then look at all the positive feedback provided by those same people!

Third, appraisers get paid by the person who owns the car - & they always want the most for their car; thus, the appraiser looks for ways to make a car worth more than it might be so their customer is happy. When I appraise a car for a buyer, my appriasal is always much lower than the seller's appraisal because I look at the real car not the car the seller wants it to be.

All these things make owners of mediocre cars think they have perfect, high priced cars....& they make the uninitiated think any example of a particular model that sold for one of those outrageos prices is worth more regardless of its condition; so, all Jaguars are expensive regardless of condition just because one sold at Barrett-Jackson for an outrageous price.

And because somebody advertised a TR3 in Hemmings for an ungodly price, they're all worth that....& Hemmings is high end for the guy with more money than, well.....

So, because we're all prone to think our cars are worth more than they really are, we believe all the things being said or prices paid by the ultrarich & attribute them to our daily drivers.

So, all the MG's in my personal collection are worth $20,000 or more - just try to buy one of them for less!

However, the MG's I do have for sale are worth quite a bit less than what other MG's are going for at auction or in Hemmings! I'm reminded of a guy I know who's had an MGA for sale for 13 years - been asking $10,000 for it all those years & he just upped the price. He could've sold it several times over for $6,000 but he's always thought it was worth more because of what the classic value guides all say. If he understood the present value of money, he would've sold it 13 years ago when he could've gotten $6,000....because his new $12,000 price is about equal to that earlier price in spendable dollars!

 

[anthony7777]

tony, cheeesh! i got my wife believing i have something i can sell for more then i payed for it. :eeek: she added up my parts bill come out to $6,650, engine rebuild, $4300.00 original purchase price, $22500.00 needs interior $2200.00, total, $35650.00 and im doing all the work myself, i may make a couple ah bucks selling it but what about folks that pay to have all the work done? could they make anything?

 

[tony barnhill]

tony, cheeesh! i got my wife believing i have something i can sell for more then i payed for it. :eeek: she added up my parts bill come out to $6,650, engine rebuild, $4300.00 original purchase price, $22500.00 needs interior $2200.00, total, $35650.00 and im doing all the work myself, i may make a couple ah bucks selling it but what about folks that pay to have all the work done? could they make anything?

Mistake #1: leaving your receipts laying around for her to find! I make certain mine are tucked aqway - & I never total them up either!!

&, here, you answer your own question: Do you think you can get $40,000 for your BJ7?

If you can, you're still losing money!! Because you're saying your labor isn't worth anything!

<span style="font-style: italic">{Oh, I've got outrageous prices on each of the cars in my personal collection...only to give Jerri a point of reference for when I'm dead.}</span>

 

[vping]

Apparently this guy has been smoking crack. No offense really but come on now. Egotesticle or what?

https://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/...0234166223&category0=&fvi=1&item=110234166223

 

[JamesWilson]

Now that the GBP is worth $2.00 USD, it makes OUR cars half price to the English. Naturally, I don't begrudge them wanting LBCs , but after all, they sent them here by the boatload in the first place.

Not 1/2 price really, but cheap by comparison. As if it matters, the pound was worth even more back in the 1950s and 60s when a lot of these cars were exported:

Given that so many were exported (like 90% of the Big Healeys) its easier to find one in the USA than the UK, so there's a scarcity value...

 

[mailbox]

Could have something to do with the "recession", maybe not. At any rate, it's significant and it's been going on for several years now.

Quite likely, the dollar is <span style="text-decoration: underline">really</span> weak (it is down 12%!!! vs. the Israeli shekel since JANUARY and similar for other currencies), and it makes it much cheaper for anyone outside of the US to buy up cars. At the same time, the internet has made this an easy transaction. Of course the recession has only been for the last few months, but the dollar has been going down for quite a while.

All true except we are not in a recession. A recession, by definition, is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. So far, we have not had one quarter of negative growth...just two quarters (so far) of relatively slow positive growth (0.6% to be exact). If it were to continue two slow and go negative for two quarters, then we would be in a recession. My personal opinion (I may be wrong) is that we are going to avoid a full-fledged recession and see growth turn around in the late spring and summer/fall. Overall in the past several years, economic growth has been pretty darned good and I see this as a temporary slowdown fueled mostly by the current credit situation.

Several people I work with(EMPLOYED PEOPLE) believe we are in a full blown recession and headed toward depression headlong. I try to tell them this is just a burp. Maybe even just a little gas, but in no way have we messed in our pants just yet. As far as the dollar goes, this is GOOD news for those who sell our products overseas. Our national deficit goes down and foreign money streams in to the country. Every cloud has a silver lining.

There is one thing about cars that holds true for every make and model out there. They just aren't building any more (unless you want a Camaro or Mustang). Older cars are just going to appreciate. People have money and/or a lot of credit and want that car they had or wanted in college. I hate it but thats just the way it is. It's also GOOD for those that sell parts for these cars. Again, silver lining.

 

[tony barnhill]

When a full blown recession hits, the first thing 'monied' people do to maintain their standard of living is to liquidate those things that they do not consider necessary, i.e., they sell art....to the 'monied' who collect cars, those cars are considered art....thus, a recession will see the market flooded with cars that would normally be kept in a private collection thereby lowering their worth not increasing it.

I for one do not believe we're in a recession nor do I believe we're on the brink of one.....as 'mailbox' stated, I think ths is but a burp in the normal cycle of economic progression....& my advice to my daughter is the same as that which I am following: now is the time to buy not sell!

I am buying stocks as the market goes through this downturn, I am looking to purchase a vacation home as that market adjusts itself, and I expect to get some terrific automotive bargains to complete my collection from those who aren't quite so optimistic as myself.

 

[70herald]

When a full blown recession hits, the first thing 'monied' people do to maintain their standard of living is to liquidate those things that they do not consider necessary, i.e., they sell art....to the 'monied' who collect cars, those cars are considered art....thus, a recession will see the market flooded with cars that would normally be kept in a private collection thereby lowering their worth not increasing it.

Actually, in a real recession the REALLY monied people take a vacation, or engage in other pleasure activities. During the 80'-'90's I lived near a small factory which made riding saddles with price tags which seemed more like cars (and expensive ones at that!). While everyone else was going out of business or just struggling, they were working overtime.

 

[JamesWilson]

While the "monieed classes" may unload their collector cars when hard times hit I rather doubt that the bread & butter LBCs would be much affected by that. My cars aren't in the same league as an XK-SS or a Series 1 Lotus Elite....

What concerns me more would be the possibility that the "younger generation" isn't going to be so familiar with these cars and that fact may affect their popularity and value.

 

[DrEntropy]

I suspect you're right, James. Boomers with some discretionary income who've remembered their MG from college days are the primary buyers now. As we toddle thru to needing walkers to ambulate the demand for LBC's will decline rapidly.

 

[zblu]

Coming soon, Zimmermann walking frames in the colours and style of you fav LBC!
Wonder iffen they will sound the same tho?

 

[DrEntropy]

Wheels, a squeezie-bulb push-bike horn and a headlamp!

 

[toysrrus]

Just my $.02 worth (For whatever its worth)?

When a "Big Healey" starts approaching the same costs as an "E-Type"; There`s something wrong with this picture!!

When I was paying $1.80 per gal. for home heating oil approx. a yr ago & Its $3.50 now; "Recession"? If not yet, "SOON"!

When major "American" car mfg`s. move their manufacturing to other parts of the world (Mexico being one of them - Nothing personal Basil); "Recession"? If not yet, "SOON"!

When "Aircraft" mfg`s. move their manufacturing to other parts of the world; "Recession"? If not yet, "SOON"!

When "Steel" mfgs. move their foundries to other parts of the world; "Recession"? If not yet, "SOON"!

When "Hershey Candy" moves their manufacturing to Mexico (Soon); "Recession"? If not yet, "SOON"!

Is there a "Recession"? Not in Mexico or other parts of the world; Just here in the "Good Old US of A"!!

When is this going to stop??

I "HATE" politics but In my opinion; We are on the brink of a "Recession" if not already in one and a stones throw away from a "Depression" if something does`nt change dramatically (SOON) in all due respect.

Russ