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tony barnhill
Great Pumpkin - R.I.P
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30% chance of rain everyday Thursday thru Sunday....now I'm really wondering whether I should bring the unfinished '63 Midget....
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10-Day Forecast - LotO
- Thread starter tony barnhill
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tony barnhill
Great Pumpkin - R.I.P
Offline
Please do....I've a new tonneau but haven't done the top yet.
Baz
Yoda
Offline
There are a series of impulses, which is why they don't agree, but below is what I deduced from the precip models.
NAM (5 day model): Wednesday clear, Good chance of rain Thursday PM; Friday, Saturday also clear.
GFS (14 day model): Wednesday evening rain overnight into Thursday, but clear for the rest.
I'm running these twice a day, but they don't usually start agreeing until 3 days.
10 day forecasts are snake oil.
5 day forecasts are 50-50.
3 day forecasts are usually pretty good.
Below is a quote from the mets at Springfield, MO. They uses the term 'POPS' which means probability of precipitation, and as you can read, they just 'keep the pops near climo' which basically means, due to afternoon heating, and moisture, yes there is a very slight possibility of a pop-up shower; but again, they are relying on models just as I am. I'm confident it will rain one day while we're there, but the 30% chance for each day, IMHO, is pessimistic.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:]THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...12Z SUITE OF MODELS OFFER LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL DEALING WITH SOME FORM OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT MID LEVEL WARMING WILL BE NUDGING TOWARD THE AREA...THOUGH NOTHING ABNORMAL OR EXTREME. AS A RESULT...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OR THE PASSING OVERNIGHT MCS. KEPT POPS RIGHT NEAR CLIMO. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY EDGE UPWARD. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY WARMER TEMPS IN THIS AREA...WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S COMMON.[/QUOTE]
NAM (5 day model): Wednesday clear, Good chance of rain Thursday PM; Friday, Saturday also clear.
GFS (14 day model): Wednesday evening rain overnight into Thursday, but clear for the rest.
I'm running these twice a day, but they don't usually start agreeing until 3 days.
10 day forecasts are snake oil.
5 day forecasts are 50-50.
3 day forecasts are usually pretty good.
Below is a quote from the mets at Springfield, MO. They uses the term 'POPS' which means probability of precipitation, and as you can read, they just 'keep the pops near climo' which basically means, due to afternoon heating, and moisture, yes there is a very slight possibility of a pop-up shower; but again, they are relying on models just as I am. I'm confident it will rain one day while we're there, but the 30% chance for each day, IMHO, is pessimistic.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:]THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...12Z SUITE OF MODELS OFFER LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL DEALING WITH SOME FORM OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT MID LEVEL WARMING WILL BE NUDGING TOWARD THE AREA...THOUGH NOTHING ABNORMAL OR EXTREME. AS A RESULT...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OR THE PASSING OVERNIGHT MCS. KEPT POPS RIGHT NEAR CLIMO. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY EDGE UPWARD. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY WARMER TEMPS IN THIS AREA...WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S COMMON.[/QUOTE]
regularman
Yoda
Offline
Tony, bring a beach umbrella, Its a spridget.
texas_bugeye
Jedi Knight
Offline
what the .. we have our own Meteorologist ?
geez thats cool. I bet nobody else has one.
BAz you are YODA!
geez thats cool. I bet nobody else has one.
BAz you are YODA!
Baz
Yoda
Offline
No meteorologist here.... merely a hobby, use the data for storm chasing.
This forecast is a little bit more consistent.
Rather than the Weather Channel, I prefer National Weather Service as it's a lot more locally specific.
As always, (and it will be) subject to change, definately with a lower precip forecast.
This forecast is a little bit more consistent.
Rather than the Weather Channel, I prefer National Weather Service as it's a lot more locally specific.
As always, (and it will be) subject to change, definately with a lower precip forecast.
Trevor Jessie
Yoda
Offline
As promised....
OUTLOOK: The latest computer models continue to forecast the main storm
track to stay across the Great Lakes into New England. Disturbances moving
east along this track will be the main weather producers throughout the
coming week as they stir up storms along the polar front which vacillates
along the southern edge of that storm track. It is too early yet to know
with any accuracy when and where each disturbance will be. What is likely
however is that at some point during the Thursday through Sunday time period
one of these disturbances and its associated showers and thunderstorms will
push the polar front south across New York and Pennsylvania. The global
forecast model does this in the Friday night - Saturday time frame but this
timing may not be very accurate.
For Missouri, upper level wind flow patterns remain rather weak and diffuse
thus the disturbances farther north along the storm track are not likely to
impact the area. That said, the airmass in place over Missouri next week
will see afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and remains quite humid and
steamy. This is a good recipe for late evening and overnight thunderstorms.
Currently the outlook for the Lake of the Ozarks area is for isolated to
widely scattered late evening and overnight thunderstorms. During this time
period, it is possible to see a strong cluster of thunderstorms develop in
the weak upper flow pattern. As a result one night of strong thunderstorms
containing very heavy rains and strong winds is a possibility. The global
forecast model hints at this type of event Friday night.
Best I can do this far in the future....
--
Cheers!!
Jim - 68 "Spridget" in Dodge City
OUTLOOK: The latest computer models continue to forecast the main storm
track to stay across the Great Lakes into New England. Disturbances moving
east along this track will be the main weather producers throughout the
coming week as they stir up storms along the polar front which vacillates
along the southern edge of that storm track. It is too early yet to know
with any accuracy when and where each disturbance will be. What is likely
however is that at some point during the Thursday through Sunday time period
one of these disturbances and its associated showers and thunderstorms will
push the polar front south across New York and Pennsylvania. The global
forecast model does this in the Friday night - Saturday time frame but this
timing may not be very accurate.
For Missouri, upper level wind flow patterns remain rather weak and diffuse
thus the disturbances farther north along the storm track are not likely to
impact the area. That said, the airmass in place over Missouri next week
will see afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and remains quite humid and
steamy. This is a good recipe for late evening and overnight thunderstorms.
Currently the outlook for the Lake of the Ozarks area is for isolated to
widely scattered late evening and overnight thunderstorms. During this time
period, it is possible to see a strong cluster of thunderstorms develop in
the weak upper flow pattern. As a result one night of strong thunderstorms
containing very heavy rains and strong winds is a possibility. The global
forecast model hints at this type of event Friday night.
Best I can do this far in the future....
--
Cheers!!
Jim - 68 "Spridget" in Dodge City
Baz
Yoda
Offline
GFS has moved the friday precip chance to saturday. Still slight.
NAM looks clear wednesday & thursday.
The only positive day of bad weather looks like tuesday evening, and the Storm Prediction Center confirms that.
The various sources are starting to line up with only a 30% chance on one of the days (they don't agree on which), except for the weather channel, still saying scattered or isolated thunderstorms every day for the next 10 days.
Honestly, we're not going to find a better forecast anywhere else in the country; highs in the upper 80's, low 90's, lows in the 60.'s/70's.
Latest chatter from the mets is, because the models don't agree, they are keeping in 30% chance.
NAM looks clear wednesday & thursday.
The only positive day of bad weather looks like tuesday evening, and the Storm Prediction Center confirms that.
The various sources are starting to line up with only a 30% chance on one of the days (they don't agree on which), except for the weather channel, still saying scattered or isolated thunderstorms every day for the next 10 days.
Honestly, we're not going to find a better forecast anywhere else in the country; highs in the upper 80's, low 90's, lows in the 60.'s/70's.
Latest chatter from the mets is, because the models don't agree, they are keeping in 30% chance.