The US economy....Where do YOU think it is headed ?

[Wire-Wheels]

We are into the 4th. quarter of the year. The COLA figures are out. They say S.S.I. will go up 2.8 percent. My question is, what does everyone think the economy will do in the next 6 months ? I know what I think is going to happen, but I will keep that to myself until others add some comments. I am just an old, retire guy myself. ...J.D.

 

[NutmegCT]

What will the economy do in the next six months? The US "economy" in six months, barring unexpected surprises, will be where it is now.

Excellent question! If we can keep on the "economy in six months" topic, without just finding groups to blame, we can learn something here.

There are so many factors involved in "the economy", and that doesn't even take into account what an "economy" is. Galbraith, one of my heroes, saw how huge corporations were determining what people want, and eliminating the small businesses that previously had produced what people want.

Today, for many people, the NYSE reflects "the economy": Majority of stocks go up, the economy is strong; majority go down, the economy is weak. "If my neighbor is out of work, it's a recession. If I'm out of work, it's a depression". DJ up while SP/NYSE go down - the economy is weak. Vice versa - the economy is strong.

So many "indicators" are conjectural, anecdotal, or random guesses. Take a look at how the "unemployment" number is determined. Take a look at how European and Asian economies are fairing, compared to the US.

I've been following "indicators" since the 1970s. Using indicators, I've predicted 12 of the last three recessions (joke ...). A young man asked JP Morgan if the market would go up, or go down. His reply: "The market will fluctuate". “Security Speculation – The Dazzling Adventure,” Laurence H. Sloan, 1927.

The US "economy" in six months, barring unexpected surprises, will be where it is now. Without major existential or regional crises, we tend to have faith in the system; Sisyphus continues to push the boulder up the mountain.

But when we lose faith in the system, and see the system slowly being destroyed, the system itself crumbles, and we plunge into the abyss of broken systems. "Pray for the health of the king [the "system"], for without the king, the people will devour each other."

OK - back to my cave.
TM

 

[Wire-Wheels]

I ask a wide open question. I have to expect a wide range of responses. I do not even care the WHY the economy does what it does. I am not in any position to make any difference anyhow. I just go with the flow and try to keep my old, retired self above water. Certainly not interested in the politics behind this stuff. ...J.D.

 

[waltesefalcon]

In my view I see the economy as slowly dying. I look at inflation and what real value my money has. In my lifetime, I was born in 1980, the value of the dollar has steadily decreased. When I get a pay raise it doesn't make me richer it simply helps me try to maintain where I am wealth wise. On paper I make more money than I ever have, in reality I had more puchasing power ten years ago. At the rate the dollar is currently being devalued it is entirely possibly that I will never be wealthy enough to entirely retire, even with my 403b and my pension.

 

[NutmegCT]

Hi Walt - I see pretty much the same thing. My SS goes up 2.8% next year, but my costs (food, mortgage, insurance, utilities, etc.) have gone up 20% in the last ten months. Ridiculous.

What do you think the economy will do in the next six months?

TM

 

[equiprx]

Hi Walt - I see pretty much the same thing. My SS goes up 2.8% next year, but my costs (food, mortgage, insurance, utilities, etc.) have gone up 20% in the last ten months. Ridiculous.

What do you think the economy will do in the next six months?

TM

My increase is going to be about $20.
Thanks for nothing.

 

[waltesefalcon]

Hi Walt - I see pretty much the same thing. My SS goes up 2.8% next year, but my costs (food, mortgage, insurance, utilities, etc.) have gone up 20% in the last ten months. Ridiculous.

What do you think the economy will do in the next six months?

TM

You remember the Weimar Republic, Tom?