You are right, it was initially arched from the boot lid all the way to the tire lid.
If you take an empty soda can and push in near the middle until it dents, you'll notice that not only does the dent go inward, but the metal pushes outward above and below the dent. That's going to be the problem you're facing with that area...if it is pushed inward where the light mounts, then it will be pushed outward just above the light. It would push outward below too, but the trunk floor likely prevented that.
Fixing it would normally be easy...but you've got that center brace right in the way. It is going to restrict the room you have to work.
If it were me, I'd put a chair where I can see the area, pop a beer and study it a while.
Usually when I'm faced with something onerous, like taking the time to remove that center brace to gain access...some time with a beer makes it seem less onerous! So, I guess I'm saying you may have to pop out that brace, and then you should be able to get your new, custom shaped hammer behind the flat area. Or, if you have a dolly that matches the curve of the valence panel, you can use that to tap outward from inside...while backing it on the outside with a flat dolly.
The bigger the hammer head or dolly you have to tap out with, the less dimpling you'll get.
By this point I bet you're thinking that just using filler sounds better! To return to the soda can analogy...the problem with using filler is that it fills. Remember the high spots that developed when we dented the can? Those cannot be fixed with filler. You would have to use even more filler AROUND the high spots to fair them into the panel. In the end, it would be a whole lotta' filler and the panel will be a different shape than intended.
While you're having that beer, think if you have any way...or any tools handy...that can pry on the flat portion with the center brace still in place. You very well may be able to just "shove" the flat portion back into shape. And, doing that will pull the high spot above back down too. Win/win and no hammering if you can figure out a way to get to it!